Tumult in the Middle East, and a Popcorn Theory of Revolution

In the wake of the Egyptian people’s success in ousting its dictator, there has been a rising wave of protests across the Middle East, notably in Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and even, most welcomed by the US, Iran. Of most recent note, five protesters were killed in Bahrain.

I am quite interested to see whether there is broad political change in the Middle East, or whether these other protests will fizzle in wait for their proper time. We believe in domino effects in international relations, but I don’t know that we have great reason to do so.

I’ve always looked at revolutions a little like popcorn. There is a gradual and even rise in the heat, and when the time is ripe it pops. You can’t force it. If you take a blow-torch to popcorn, you get a charred mess; and if a country tries to externally spur revolution they are likely to just spur atrocities.  

When is the time ripe? I don’t know precisely and I don’t think anyone does (it’s certainly complex and perhaps largely dependent upon idiosyncratic factors), but at the fore is a rising yearning for freedom and a declining will of the leadership to do whatever it takes.